Albanese says he’s aiming for ‘back to back wins’
The prime ministerAnthony Albanesewas on ABC earlier this morning, saying “back to back wins” is “what we are aiming for today”.
He made his final pitch to undecided or disillusioned voters:
Labor is leading the Coalition 51.4% to 48.6% in Guardian Australia’spoll tracker, after a flurry of final polls from DemosAu, Newspoll, YouGov and Roy Morgan. This is close to a repeat of the last election, but, as you can see in the chart below, even on election day there is still uncertainty.
Labor’s estimated primary vote is steady at 30%, and the Coalition 33% in the latest average. The polls have Labor’s primary vote a little bit higher than this, but the model thinks there might be an overestimation of Labor as wasseen in previous elections.
The estimated primary share for the Greens is about 13% according to our model, which would be about a one point increase on the last election. Others and Independents, a group that includes One Nation and the Teal independents, are on 23.5%, up about four points.
It is unclear how this will translate into seats given theincrease in the number of electorates that are three-way contests, rather than coming down to a fight between Labor and the Coalition. Pollster Shaun Ratclifftold Guardian Australiathat the latest polls show the Coalition “going backwards” in a selection of key seats he has been tracking, after initial polls in February had the Coalition ahead.
You can find more granular breakdowns of the polls, including by demography, onour tracking page.
Somewhat further afield, Australians have already voted, Emily Wind reports:
In the leadup to election day, Australians have cast their ballots in a number of remote locations and even from overseas – but none as far south as the 100-odd expeditioners currently working in Antarctica.
Expeditioners working at Australia’s Antarctic and sub-Antarctic stations were able to cast their vote by telephone – a process typically reserved for voters who are blind or have low vision – with no physical ballot booth setup this year.
Voting opened on 22 April, with expeditioners able to vote early or on election day. But, unlike others, they won’t be fined if they do not vote, according to the Australian Electoral Commission.
The AEC says Australians travelling to work in Antarctica need to register as an Antarctic elector before leaving the country – with “Antarctic” including the Australian Antarctic Territory, the Territory of Heard Island and McDonald Islands, Macquarie Island, and a ship at sea in transit to or from Antarctica.
Arrangements were put in place for expeditioners on the RSV Nuyina in case it arrived back later than scheduled (on 2 May, the day before the election).
It is just past 8am here in Sydney, and the polling booths are officially open!
Voters can lodge their ballots between 8am to 6pm today.
For a refresher on when, where and how to vote,here is our 2025 voting guidewith everything you need to know.
Final Newspoll of campaign
Thefinal Newspoll of the campaignsuggestsAnthony Albanesewill defy the trend of recent years and become the first prime minister to win a second term since John Howard.
The survey for the Australian has Labor leading theCoalitionby 52.5-47.5% on a two-party preferred basis.
On a primary vote basis, Labor is on 33 percentage points, the Coalition on 34, Greens on 13, One Nation on 8.
What’s more, it shows that a majority of voters think they will be better off with another Labor government than with the Coalition.
The outcome, however, remains on a “knife-edge” according to our political correspondent Dan Jervis-Bardy. While Albanese looks like he has his nose in front,Peter Duttonis still claiming he will win a shock victory.
Read Dan’s piece here:
Asked what she thought was going to cut through,Gallaghersaid:
Asked if she gave theCoalitioncredit for finding things to save on in their costings, she said:
Last-minute pitches to voters
Labor’s finance minister, Katy Gallagher, and the shadow minister for home affairs, James Paterson, were both on 7:30 last night to make their final pitch to voters.Paterson denied the Liberal party was going to change the pension for people overseas after the Coalition’s costings suggested the party would change the social security rules so people travelling internationally would get just four weeks’ payments.Paterson said:
Paterson said many voters would make up their mind right before they enter the booth:
Election day dawns
Good morning and welcome to our election day blog. It’s been a long, gruelling five weeks but at long last the day has arrived – despite the fact that around seven million people have already voted.
We will be around the grounds this morning – from all parts of Australia to Antarctica and London and back again – to bring you the news of how everything’s going down.