Epsom has hired the balls and equipment used in FA Cup draws to add a touch of glamour to proceedings when the stall positions in Saturday’s Derby are allocated in the town centre on Wednesday. From a punter’s perspective, however, a wide-open race and one of the biggest fields this century promise to be the only selling points required for the 246th running of the Classic. Twenty colts remain in contention at the penultimate declaration stage on Monday.
There are few sights in the sport to match the spectacle and excitement of a big field charging down the Epsom hill towards Tattenham Corner, but it is 22 years sinceKris Kin and Kieren Fallon beat 19 rivals, the only Derby since the turn of the century with a maximum field of 20. That size field is still a possibility thanks to the addition of two lightly raced dark horses on Monday at a cost of £75k apiece.
Midak, an unbeaten colt who runs in the colours of Aga Khan IV, who died in February, and New Ground, who was a length behind Cualificar, the runner-up in Sunday’s French Derby, in April, will join Ruling Court,the 2,000 Guineas winner,and the significant trial winners at Leopardstown, York and Chester in the probable field when a multitude of questions about the runners’ stamina, speed, athleticism and attitude will prove to have just one answer.
Delacroix, the comfortable winner of Leopardstown’s main Derby trial, heads the ante-post betting at a top price of 11-4, but his position at the top of the market is still far from guaranteed, with Ruling Court little more than a point behind on 4-1 and Pride Of Arras,the unbeaten Dante winner,next at 9-2. The Lion In Winter, Delacroix’s stable companion at the Aidan O’Brien yard, is a single-figure price despitehis defeat in the Dante, while Damysus, the runner-up behind Pride Of Arras at York, will be the first port of call for many each-way backers at around 10-1.
Delacroix is, in some respects, an ideal favourite for one of the few races that can grab the general sporting public’s attention. O’Brien and Ryan Moore, his trainer and (probable) jockey, need little introduction, Delacroix’s form is impressive with the promise of more to come, and yet, the odds hide the truth in plain sight. Take out the bookies’ margin and there is around a 25% chance he will be a record-extending 11th Derby winner for his trainer – and, by the same token, a 75% chance he will not.
We have, after all, been here several times before with O’Brien-trained winners of the Leopardstown trial. He has won the race a remarkable 17 times, but onlyGalileo (2001)andHigh Chaparral (2002), his first two Derby winners, followed up at Epsom. Delacroix was O’Brien’s 14thLeopardstown trial winner since High Chaparral. Eleven of the previous 13 went on torun in the Derby without success, includingBolshoi Ballet, the 13-8 favouritein 2021, Fame And Glory (9-4), Stone Age (7-2), Broome (4-1) and Recital (5-1).
When Delacroix is considered as potentially the latest in a long line of failures, even his top price of 11-4 loses much of its appeal. Yet the fascinating thing about this year’s Derby is that there is a serious question about every horse near the top of the betting. For Ruling Court, it is stamina, for Pride Of Arras and Damysus, it is experience, while The Lion In Winter needs to bounce back from his Dante defeat.
William Buick and Charlie Appleby, Ruling Court’s jockey and trainer respectively, have two of the five Classics in the bag this year and could have a third by the time the field goes to post on Saturday asDesert Flower, the 1,000 Guineas winner, is favourite for Friday’s Oaks.
An Oaks success on Desert Flower would complete the set of British Classics for trainer and rider, while no jockey has ridden the first four Classic winners in a season. A win for Ruling Court would set up the intriguing possibility of an attempt to become the first Triple Crown winner since 1970 in September’s St Leger at Doncaster.
“They will either stay or they won’t, it’s as simple as that,” Buick said on Monday. “Obviously you have to ride them accordingly, but equally you can’t make a horse stay and where you find out is inside the last couple of furlongs. You won’t get an indication before that. You look to get your position, shut them down and then freewheel until you want to get competitive.
“The Classics are what it’s all about. Each season you set out to find a Classic horse. There’s the question mark about the distance, but I feel like I’m on the best two horses.”