Guardian reporter Ben Quinn is at Grimsby town hall where the ballot boxes are arriving.
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Another key prize of the night is the mayoralty of the Greater Lincolnshire Combined County Authority, a newly created entity that brings together a demographically diverse land mass.Traditionally Labour-leaning industrial towns such as Scunthorpe in the north are welded together with farmland and prosperous market towns to the southincluding Grantham, popular with London commuters.As well as local issues, different national policies are also playing out.In the area around the industrial town of Scunthorpe for example, some expected that Britain’s governingLabourParty could get a bounce from the move by the government to take control of a Chinese-owned British steel mill last month.As I also reported from southern Lincolnshire, anger among some rural communities towards solar farms has also been seized on by the populist Reform Party where its anti Net Zero policies have found receptive ears.
Labour andReform UKofficials appeared tense as votes were counted through the nightat DCBL stadium, the home of Widnes Vikings rugby league club, just across the mouth of the River Mersey from Runcorn.
The battle for Runcorn and Helsby has been billed as the first key test of Reform UK’s ability to topple Britain’s historic two-party system at the next general election. As many as 153 Labour MPs in England and Wales risk losing their seats to Nigel Farage’s party if it continues its surge in popularity, a recent pollsuggested.
Campaigners from both parties repeatedly said the result was “too close to call”, downplaying talk of a decisive victory for either side. There was no sign of eitherLabouror Reform UK candidate with almost an hour to go before the expected result, although the Reform UK chair, Zia Yusuf, did make an appearance for a brief television interview.
Turnout in the contest was a higher-than-expected 46.33%, which some on the count floor attributed to the “Farage factor” – a reference to the Reform UK leader’s ability to provoke strong opinion on either side.
Fifteen candidates are contesting this by-election but in reality it is a two-horse race between Labour and Reform UK, although there had been little enthusiasm from many voters for either party. One independent candidate said the race had been “defined by who people don’t want to vote for - not who people do want to vote for”.
What’s at stake?
These elections are being seen as the first full-scale electoral test for Keir Starmer since the general election,with likely notable repercussions for Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch, and to a lesser extent theLiberal Democratsand Greens.
Up for grabs are more than 1,600 council seats in 23 councils.
In the last local elections, in May 2021 when Boris Johnson was still prime minister,Conservativeswon nearly 1,000 of them.
But today, the dynamic is very different .
County councils across England are being elected on 1 May, along with four regional mayors. Find out which areas are voting and search for your own in this handy tracker.
The right-wing populistReform UKis bullish about its chances of winning two new mayoral poststhat have been created with significant powers in the north east of England and are among the biggest prizes of the night, writes the Guardian’s Ben Quinn.That includes the race to be the new mayor of the Greater Lincolnshire Combined County Authority, where a former Conservative MP and minister, Andrea Jenkyns, is Reform’s candidate.
The race is largely regarded as being between Reform and the traditionally dominant party of the right, the Conservative Party, and success there for Reform would mark a major moment in its project to displace its rival on the right.However,sources in Reform were also expressing confidence that Luke Campbell, a former Olympic boxer with zero political experience, would also win the mayoralty of the Hull and East Yorkshire Combined Authority. Polls in advance of the election had suggested the race was too close to call.The party has been talking up its prospects in the contest based on what it says were early tallies – informal scores – of voting in Lincolnshire, where County Council elections were also held.“Based on what we’ve seen, we are outpacing the Conservative candidate at least two to one in the south of Lincolnshire,” said one source, who admitted that it would be “harder” for the party in northern, more urban and traditionally more Labour-leaning, areas.“The north will be different but it’s clear that we are smashing it in Tory heartlands.”
Zia Yusuf, chair ofReform UKhas spoken to BBC Newsnight from the Runcorn by-election count, saying he thinks it will be a historic night for the party.
Where we are:
Vote counting is underway, with early results starting to trickle in.
All eyes are on whetherLabourcould lose a previously safe Commons seat, and whether the Tories take a blow across the country.
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK could deal major blows to both Labour and the Conservatives, while theLiberal Democratsand the Greens are also confident of success at the expense of the two biggest Westminster parties, write PA media.
Battles to watch include whether Keir Starmer’s Labour party can hold on to the Runcorn and Helsby seat in the Commons, with Reform hoping to take a seat the governing party won convincingly at the 2024 general election.
Meanwhile,Kemi Badenochfaces her first test as Tory leader as the party braced for a difficult set of results, with both Reform and the Lib Dems hopeful of stealing council seats last contested in 2021 at the height of Boris Johnson’s popularity with Conservative voters.
Good morning and welcome to our blog covering results in 24 English local council elections, six mayoral races and the byelection in Runcorn and Helsby.
Reform have mounted a fierce challenge to try to overturn the near-15,000Labourmajority in Runcorn.
The byelection, the first since last year’s general election, was triggered when Mike Amesburyresigned afterbeing given a suspended prison sentence for punching a constituent, an incident captured on video.
Reform are also predicted to do well in some of the mayoral contests, which would be worrying for Labour. Meanwhile the council results are forecast to be grim for theConservatives. Their leader, Kemi Badenoch, has already ruled out resigning, and has said that the party’s current unpopularity “just has to be got through”.
In an interview on Tuesday, she said:
Follow along with us for all the news.