For most of the past 30 years, the EU has led the world on climate action. The bloc had thedeepest reductions in greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto protocol; the first climate laws came from EU member states; the first emissions trading scheme, in 2005; and theParis agreement in 2015.
At times when other major countries – the US, Japan, Canada, China and India at various points – have stepped back, the EU has often stepped forward. There would be no Paris accord had the bloc notwon a key battle at the Durban climate summit in 2011that paved the way.
For Wopke Hoekstra, the EU’s climate commissioner, that era is over.Europewould still lead, he said, but other countries must come forward too.
“[We should be] looking forward to contributions from more than just the EU, given that we’re responsible for 6% of global emissions, so without others we’re not going to solve this,” he said in an interview before the publication of thecommission’s proposal for a 2040 emissions targeton Wednesday. “Much as I appreciate the high expectations [of EU leadership], it is extremely important to contextualise this. We will continue with clearly ambitious yet also pragmatic climate policies.”
The commissionhas proposed a 90% reduction on greenhouse gas emissions by 2040, compared with 1990 levels. The figure is at the bottom of the 90-95% range that the bloc’s scientific advisers said was possible, and to the consternation of many green campaigners includes a provision for up to 3% of the reductions to come from buying carbon credits overseas, from 2036.
Mohamed Adow, the director of the Nairobi-based thinktank Power Shift Africa, said: “The EU using carbon credits in its 2040 target is a huge concern and will undermine trust at a time [when] we need Europe to be stepping into the void left by the US. Carbon credits are a mirage, an accounting trick to let the rich world keep on burning fossil fuels whilst pretending climate change is being tackled somewhere else in the world.”
The idea also has some support, however. Rachel Humphries, the head of climate policy for Europe at the Nature Conservancy, said: “Carbon markets, when done right, can lead to faster and more effective climate progress.”
The proposal must still pass key hurdles: it could face opposition in the EU parliament, and some member states have signalled they may try to maul it. Those include the predictably climate-sceptic Hungary, but also – astoundingly, on the 10th anniversary of the Paris agreement –France.
Emmanuel Macron hassuggested the 2040 target could be delayed, by separating it from the EU’s discussions on a fresh target on emissions under the Paris agreement, called a nationally determined contribution (NDC), covering the next decade. The UN secretary general has asked all countries to submit NDCs in September, aftermost missed a February deadline, to allow them to be presented at acrunch climate summit, Cop30, this November in Brazil.
The EU’s NDC, pegged to 2035, is supposed to be derived from the 2040 proposal. Allowing them to be separated would give more time for debate on the later goal – debate demanded mainly by those who wish to weaken it.
European centrist leaders face a populist threat, andbacklash against green policy. Macron’s stance, and Hoekstra’s comments on EU leadership, must be seen in that context.
But giving in to populist rhetoric may be counterproductive. Polls show that most people in the EU remainfirmly in favour of strong climate measures. Amélie Laurent, policy adviser at the Bellona Europe thinktank, said: “With most Europeans recognising climate change as a serious threat and supporting climate neutrality by 2050, it is crystal clear that citizens demand meaningful climate action. EU policymakers must listen to their citizens and deliver the targets needed to meet this mandate.”
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The EU’s policies will also have an effect internationally. Cosima Cassel, programme lead for climate diplomacy and geopolitics at the E3G thinktank in Berlin, said the EU’s NDC would be crucial in galvanising other economic heavyweights to play their part. “A timely NDC submission would send a clear signal to other major emitters includingChina, India, Japan, Australia and Mexico to step up their own ambition ahead of Cop30.”
China, the world’s biggest emitter, will be critical – whether Beijing goes for a 10% cut in emissions by 2035, as some have suggested, or the 30% to 50% cut that others calculate is feasible, will be the biggest determinant of success at Cop30 in Belém.
The EU is holding key meetings with China in the coming weeks, and Hoekstra has criticised the Chinese for building new coal-fired power plants. But at least China ishelping to drive global takeup of clean technology at a rapid rate. India is also surging ahead in renewable energy, and is now the world’s third-biggest producer of solar and wind energy.
By contrast, there are very large emitters and exporters of fossil fuels – Russia, Saudi Arabia and now the US – that take little action or have gone backwards on climate commitments.
The key question for the EU, and the planet, will be what can be done to bring recalcitrant countries on board atCop30. Allowing them to exploit the impression that the EU is backing down might prove a boon to the wreckers.