Ever sinceLabourwas elected last summer there has been talk of a reset in the UK’s relationship with the EU.
A carefully choreographed programme of talks over the past nine months to test the political possibilities will now culminate in the first UK-EU summit. It could be a major opportunity – or a damp squib.
Labour is anxious not to give ground to political opponents who accuse it of trying to return to the EU by stealth, and this has contaminated the communications in the run-up. It now looks more like a routine meeting with a reception on the side than a big conference.
The neuralgia has even extended to the language around the summit, which has gone from “reset” to “strategic partnership” or “common understanding”.
No in-depth agreements are expected to be made on any key subjects, though there is always a chance of surprise. The pre-summit agenda being tested on both sides will lead to a political communique, which could be called the London declaration.
This will be an agreement to explore and negotiate seven or eight key topics over the coming months. And they are as follows …
This is the single most important topic on the agenda, say diplomats. Expect more coordination on European security in the face of the US decision to upend 80 years of allied defence strategy since the second world war.
Political alignment on Ukraine already exists and the EU and the UK have been in lockstep on the cause of war, sanctions and caps on oil. But a new relationship could involve a new intelligence-sharing framework and British access to EU defence procurement funds.
This would entail the UK contributing to the fund. That would have to be negotiated. There may also be restrictions on what the UK as a third country can be involved in as a controlling party.
But the UK’s defence industry may also benefit from a cooling of EU relations with the US. For example, Portugal recently said future procurement of US F-35 fighter jets was unlikely.
This is the most sensitive subject on the table. Labour has spend nearly a year throwing cold water on EU proposals to launch a programme for under-30s to spend a limited time working or studying across the UK and EU.
The proposals have been contaminated by Labour’s deeply held fears that it would give ground to its political opponents. Some EU diplomats fear Reform UK’s success in the recent elections has set things back further.
Member states are so keen to re-establish what one EU diplomat called a “human bridge” that they have pared down the original three-year proposal to one year, with a quota of between 50,000 to 70,000 young people going in either direction each year. They have even rebranded the proposal as a Youth Experience Scheme, or YES.
Anand Menon, the founder of the UK in a Changing Europe thinktank, recently told a House of Commons select committee that the issue was a red line for some. “For some on the European side, this is a proof of faith now – if you are serious about this, give us this.”
Naomi Smith, the chief executive of Best for Britain, said surveys showed that “in every single constituency, even in Clacton, it’s popular”, with 66% wanting a two-year scheme and 50% supporting a four-year scheme.
A no-deal on youth mobility would look like a complete diplomatic failure. Preparing the ground, the European relations minister, Nick Thomas-Symonds, revealed for the first time in early May that the government was indeed looking at setting up a scheme as long as its red lines were respected.
All fresh farm produce entering the EU from the UK – whether sausages, cheese or timber – must be certified by a veterinary official before passage across the English channel.
The government has hinted at the possibility of a sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) deal, which would reduce or remove those checks and ease trade and remove costs for businesses that have to pay for these tests.
Business leaders are also looking for “mutual recognition of conformity assessments” (MRCs), which they say will make a bigger difference to trade. This would allow testing bodies in the UK to be recognised by the EU and allow agents to certify products as “safe for the UK and the EU”.
Both sides have a desire to restore a system to allow artists, musicians and performers visa-free access for short tours across the continent.
There are hopes an agreement, omitted in the Brexit deal, could be revived. Officials warn it is more difficult than it seems on both sides, because immigration is controlled by each country individually. There are also hopes on future mutual recognition of qualifications.
Architects, accountants and other professionals could once work freely between the UK and EU, but that ended with Brexit.
The Labour manifesto refers to the desire for closer law enforcement, with Thomas-Symonds pointing to delivery of a new accord on policing.
The UK lost access to the European arrest warrant scheme on leaving the EU, along with the European criminal records information system (ECRIS) and the Schengen information system II, (SISII) the largest EU law enforcement database. There are also concerns from the UK police that fugitives can disappear in the EU and may sometimes be identified only when crossing an external EU border.
Both sides are keen to work on migration and trafficking, under the umbrella theme of “safety” of human beings.
In what looks like a repeat of 2020, there is a row over fishing rights. Under the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement, 25% of the overall existing EU quota in UK waters was to be transferred to the UK over a five-and-a-half-year period to 30 June 2026. It was widely expected to be the status quo for another year, with yearly reviews after that.
However, the UK is demanding a four-year deal and the EU wants seven. This may be part of the overall package to be traded by the EU to get better terms on an SPS or youth mobility deal, including home tuition fees for EU students, a non-starter for the UK.