Anthony Albanese is on the cusp of winning a second term but hopes of retaining majority government hang on a knife-edge as Peter Dutton attempts to overcome a chaotic campaign to win enough seats to force Labor “deep” into minority.
The prime minister and opposition leader will return to their home cities of Sydney and Brisbane on Saturday to cast their vote and await the election results, after a multi-state blitz of battleground seats in the final day of the campaign.
The published national opinion polls show Labor on track to form government but party strategists expect it will need to gain ground to retain a 76-seat majority as they brace for losses, including in suburban Melbourne and regional New South Wales.
Dutton is adamant he can pull off a surprise win, drawing hope from Scott Morrison’s “miracle” 2019 election victory against Bill Shorten.
But seniorCoalitioncampaign sources are downplaying that prospect, acknowledging that forcing Labor “deep” into minority is likely the best-case scenario after a tumultuous five-week campaign.
The two leaders made their last pitch to the remaining undecided voters on Friday in a frenetic final full-day of campaigning.
Albanese made an 11th-hour visit to Dutton’s own electorate of Dickson in Brisbane in a further sign Labor believes the opposition leader’s seat is winnable.
Almost 40% of ballots were already cast as ofmid-morning on Friday,surpassing the early voting figure from 2022.
Albanese insisted Labor still had a “mountain to climb” as he urged voters to grant him a second-term to fulfil promises in health, housing and cutting student debt.
If successful, he would be the first prime minister to win re-election since John Howard in 2004 and the first Labor leader to achieve the feat since Bob Hawke in 1990.
“In uncertain times you can be certain that Labor has a plan to build Australia’s future and you can be certain that the Coalition have cuts and chaos, as the way that they’ve run this campaign,” Albanese told reporters in the seat of Longman north of Brisbane.
Dutton, who campaigned in Adelaide and Perth on Friday, said the election had echoes of 2019, when Morrison defied the polls to defeat Shorten.
“I think we’re seeing a 2019 situation, where you’ve got a lot of interesting contests playing on the ground, where we’ve had a very significant effort by great candidates,” Dutton told ABC’s AM.
“And I think there’ll be some big surprises on election night, because people have had enough.”
Labor insiders believe Albanese and the party national secretary, Paul Erickson, have run a “textbook campaign”, capitalising on the Coalition’s missteps and voters’ negative perceptions of Dutton to prosecute the case for continuity in a period of global upheaval.
But the government – which holds a notional 78 seats – remains in a fight to retain a majority amid the threat of a voter backlash from outer suburban and regional voters over the cost of living.
The worst fears of an electoral “bloodbath” in Victoria, where half-a-dozen seats were once considered at serious risk, have subsided in recent weeks.
Nevertheless, one strategist said the party was bracing for “one of the toughest results we’ve had in a very long time” in the traditionally safe Labor state.
Both sides expect Labor to loseAston while Chisholm and McEwen are considered tight races.
The Coalition believes it is in contention in the western Melbourne seats of Hawke and Gorton, although Labor is confident of holding both.
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The expectation of several losses has Labor anticipating it will need to pick up seats to govern in its own right for a second term.
The party is targeting Brisbane, Griffith and Bonner in Brisbane, Leichhardt in Cairns, Sturt in South Australia, Deakin and Menzies in Melbourne and Bass and Braddon in Tasmania.
Albanese campaigned in Devonport, in the seat of Braddon, on Friday before flying to Melbourne.
Labor is confident of retaining all four seats it won in Western Australia in 2022,including the marginal electorate of Tangney, although theLiberals are considered the frontrunners in newly formed Bullwinkel.
Coalition campaigners are dismissive of thepublished national polls, adamant their internal research indicates much tighter contests in marginal seats.
Senior campaign sources accept the odds of even forming a minority government are slim, as the focus narrows to forcing Labor below 70 seats.
The opposition are hopeful of picking up between six and 12 Labor seats, the teal-held seats of Goldstein and Kooyong in Melbourne and Curtin in Perth and Greens-held Brisbane in the Queensland capital.
The list of target Labor seats include Gilmore andPatersonin regional NSW.
Campaign sources believePenny Wong’s voice to parliament commentscould shift votes in the final days, particularly in Labor-held seats that recorded a high “no” votes at the 2023 referendum.
Labor has ruled out reviving the Indigenous advisory body, including through legislation.
The Coalition’s challenge is not just to win seats but also defend them, including against Climate-200 backed independents inLiberal-held Bradfieldand Wannon and Nationals-held Cowper.
An outcome in which the Coalition fail to build on their notional 57 seats would be considered a disaster and place Dutton’s future as leader in immediate doubt.
Adam Bandt’s Greens are confident of holding Griffith and Ryan in Brisbane and believe they are favourites in Labor-held Wills in inner-city Melbourne.
The Greens-held seat of Brisbane and target seats ofMacnamara in Melbourneand Richmond in northern NSW are three-cornered contests and therefore harder to gauge, according to party insiders.
“If you’re concerned about the housing and rental crisis, you can’t keep voting for the same two parties and expecting a different result,” Bandt said in his final pitch to voters.