Canadians head to the polls in a federal election overshadowed by fury at Donald Trump’s threats to the country’s sovereignty and fears over his escalating trade war.
In the final days of a month-long campaign – described by all party leaders as the most consequential general election in a lifetime – the US president yet again re-inserted himself into the national discussion, with fresh threats to annex the country. “We don’t need anything fromCanada. And I say the only way this thing really works is for Canada to become a state,” he told Time magazine on Friday.
Also overshadowing the final day of electioneering was adeadly attack at a bustling street festival in Vancouverthat left the country reeling and forced the prime minister, Mark Carney, to briefly suspend his campaign in order to make sombre remarks to the nation.
“Those families are living every family’s nightmare,” Carney said on Sunday morning, after a driver killed at least 11 people and injured more at the Filipino community’s Lapu Lapu festival. “I know that I join all Canadians in mourning with you. I know that Canadians are united with you.”
A visibly emotional Carney spoke of “Bayanihan”, the Filipino value of community serving those in need.
“This spirit upon which we must draw in this incredibly difficult time. We will comfort the grieving. We will care for each other. We will unite in common purpose,” he added.
As recently as January,Canadianpollsters and political pundits struggled to find fresh ways to describe the bleak prospects for the then prime ministerJustin Trudeau’s Liberal party, which seemed on track for a catastrophic blowout. The party trailed the rival Conservatives by as many as 27 points in some polls. The Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, was poised for the largest and most resounding electoral victory in more than half a century. That strength was the result of alaser-focused, years-long campaign to weaken the governing Liberalsand the parties that supported their minority government.
But Trump’s detonation of the US’s closest diplomatic and economic relationship has fundamentally reshaped how many feel about their southern neighbour and heavily influenced how Carney, the former central banker who inherited control of the Liberal party in mid March, has shaped his electoral bid.
That framing has the possibility of producing a result that would have been unfathomable three months ago.
Now the Conservatives’ chances of an electoral victory are slim – and would require a significant polling miss and a groundswell of support in key battlegrounds.
“Almost everything about this campaign is without precedent. For the first time in Canada’s history, our closest geographic, economic and security partner has placed us in the crosshairs, disrupting our sense of economic and physical security,” said Scott Reid, a political adviser and former director of communications to the Liberal former prime minister Paul Martin.
“And then you have this unprecedented situation where Mark Carney, with no electoral experience emerges on to the scene, reverses a 26-point deficit in his party’s fortunes and takes them to the brink of a majority victory. Nothing about this that’s happened before. It’s not just that it’s unprecedented, it’s that it’s enormously consequential in all of its implications. It’s all jaw-dropping.”
Still, the prospect of a fourth consecutive Liberal term has frustrated many in the country, who see a government that was unable to rein in a cost of living crisis on the verge of retaining power.
“Ten years of a Liberal government is a long time. They had their shot. And the changes they made are for the worst. We need a new government, we need new ideas, new people and new ministers,” said Sam, who lives in a new housing development in Carney’s electoral district in Ottawa.
He said that although Carney cast himself as a novice, the Liberal leader is a “political insider,” adding: “I’m not saying he’s not a qualified person. But he’s also a businessman. So is Trump. Look how that’s turned out for everyone.”
Running on a message of change, Poilievre, a seven-term parliamentarian, has attracted thousands to his energetic rallies across Canada, and won over young voters attracted by his response to the country’s cost of living crisis.
“Canadians are asking the simple question: can we really afford to allow Mark Carney to have the fourth term of Justin Trudeau, raising exactly the same taxes, running exactly the same deficits, doubling exactly the same housing costs, with exactly the same Liberal team?” Poilievre said during a campaign stop in the city of Saskatoon, a Tory stronghold.
“There’s a generational divide in the country and real questions of whether Canadian dream is achievable any more. Poilievre was beating the drums about this and Trudeau’s popularity was plummeting. And exactly the wrong moment, we have this threat to the south of us and it completely overturned the tables in Canadian politics,” said Melanie Paradis, the president of Texture Communications and director of communications for the former Conservative leader Erin O’Toole.
“And the question is, what’s at stake? For the older generation, it’s the sovereignty and integrity of Canada. The existential threat to their future is Trump [but] the existential threat to the future of the younger generation is being able to own a home and start a family.”
That shift in political calculus puts the Conservatives in a difficult place.
“We’ve had a bizarre reversal of fortunes. We used to be so reliably strong with the older demographic – people who you could really count on to show up and vote on election day,” said Paradis. “Now we have an incredibly strong showing among young voters, but now we’ve lost the support of senior men.”
A race dominated by the two main party’s leaders is also poised to devastate smaller opposition parties, all of which have struggled to be part of a discussion focused on Canada’s economic and political responses to Trump. The New Democratic party, which previously propped up Trudeau’s minority government, is poised for its biggest-ever loss, and its leader, Jagmeet Singh, is at risk of losing his federal seat in the Burnaby South electoral district.
“Conservative attacks on the [NDP’s support for the Liberals] were highly effective in eroding trust in Jagmeet Singh. But the result was, when you see this threat from Trump, people who would have normally voted for the party are now strategically looking at the Liberals,” said Paradis.
The Green leader, Elizabeth May, is also at risk of losing her seat. A wave of patriotic sentiment, spurred by Trump, hasthreatened the electoral prospectsof the separatist Bloc Québécois to the benefit of the Liberals.
Already, more than 7 million people have cast ballots in early voting – a 25% increase over the previous record, helped in large part by the Easter long weekend. The first polls close at 8.30pm Atlantic time, with seat-rich Québec and Ontario closing at 9.30pm eastern time, with results expected soon after.