There will be tries. That is hardly a revolutionary prediction in a sport that has long since rained down on us the 21st century’s manna of entertainment at all costs, but even by those standards this weekend’s last round of thePremiershippromises bounty.
The science of prediction is at best hit and miss, but one blind alley all too many “experts” get lost down is consideration of tactics, gameplans and the like, when all that really matters is a team’s motivation. Purity of desire is a special ingredient in a side’s prospects for any individual match. This weekend we have five matches, and they all might be summarised as a team with something to play for versus a team with nothing.
That is an explosive mix at the best of times, but in this era of tries, tries and outrageous comebacks it is all the more so. Team A is chasing a place in the playoffs, so they burst into the match like men possessed. Either they rack up a massive score in no time at all and relax, whereupon Team B start to chance their arm, because why not; or Team A overextend themselves in pursuit of their goal, and Team B pick them off, because all of these teams can play the rugby of the gods. Either way, there will be tries.
Bath are top of the table, and the only side mathematically guaranteed a place in the playoffs. They have scored 92 tries across 17 matches, a rate of 5.4 a match, comfortably the highest of any team in Premiership history, bar this season’s second highest try-scorers – see below.
People talk about the Premiership’s entertainment quotient as if it were a new thing, when actually it has been so for several years. For context, 2009-10 was a nadir in rugby union’s quest for entertainment at all costs. It is difficult to say why this was the case. The dreaded experimental law variations had come in the summer before but had never taken off.
A personal memory, nevertheless, of the season that followed is of teams terrified of having the ball, because of the leeway afforded to that most dread of concepts, “the jackler”. Check all the data about tries scored, metres gained, line breaks, all the usual indicators of a “good match”, and they are way down for that one season, across all competitions.
Bath, as it happens, finished the regular season as top try-scorers in 2009-10 as well, with 49 tries across 22 matches – or a rate of 2.2 tries a match. So there has been quite some progress on that front. It happened more quickly than most commentators would have it, but there is no denying, too, that with each season the entertainment quotient has continued to climb – and this has already been the best yet.
This weekend, Bath have nothing to play for. They have just won their second piece of silverware this season, the Challenge Cup, but they have done all they can to position themselves advantageously for the one they really want, the Premiership. All you could say is that they might want to finish off the one side who have dominated this competition in recent years,Saracens, once and for all.
Saracens host Bath this weekend, and qualification is out of their hands. It feels weird just writing that. They will have to win anyway, with maximum points, and hope enough teams slip up ahead of them. All the while keeping at bay the most prolific team in Premiership history. There will be tries.
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Leicester, champions the year before last, play Newcastle at home. We are assuming maximum points there for the Tigers and the other home playoff berth confirmed. Elsewhere, Sale travel to Exeter, hoping to clinch the third playoff spot. Exeter are the only team with nothing to play for who are also at home, but Sale have a couple of Lions – and George Ford, who is the best player in the British Isles at the moment.
Gloucester are playing for a place in the playoffs too, at home againstNorthampton, the current champions. They are the third highest try-scorers in this season of try-scoring, but they need someone above them to lose.
We all know who that could be. The game of the weekend is down the M5 in Bristol. If two teams encapsulate this era of try-scoring, unpredictable wildness, it is Bristol andHarlequins. Bristol are the second highest try-scorers this season, with 87, a rate of 5.1 a match. They have also conceded more (76 – 4.4 a match) than anyone bar bottom-placed Newcastle.
The greatest match this correspondent has ever covered wasBristol’s playoff semi-final against Quinsin 2021-22, the year Quins went on to win their second title. Bristol, who had finished top of the table, were 28-0 up after half an hour; Harlequins won 43-36 after extra time.
Bristol have it all to play for at Ashton Gate on Saturday; Quins have nothing. Should be straightforward. But predictions with these two are for fools. There will be tries.