Analysis of the election result has barely begun, but this much is clear – the country has backed a rapid acceleration towards renewable energy.Labor didn’t say much about the climate crisis during the campaign, announcing only one new policy. But Anthony Albanese and his climate change and energy minister, Chris Bowen, emerged with their ambitious goal of the country getting 82% of electricity from solar, wind and hydro by 2030 not just intact, but emphatically endorsed.
Labor’s position has been relentlessly attacked by the Coalition, rightwing organisations backed by fossil fuel interests and one of the country’s biggest news media companies. Australians rejected this comprehensively.
This is evident not just in the big swing to the ALP.The Greens have had a bruising timein the House of Representatives, in part because there has been a rebalance after they got a little lucky in some three-way contests in Brisbane in 2022. The swing to Labor hurt them. But their national vote largely held up and strengthened in the Senate, wherethey will have the balance of power in their own right.
Support for independents continues to surge, up from about 500,000 votes in 2019 and 750,000 in 2022 to roughly 1m this time. Not all of this went to community-backed indies advocating stronger action on climate change and renewable energy, but most of it did. Wherever the seat count ends up, the independent movement that is focused on climate, lifting integrity and improving safety and respect for women continues to grow.
The result is that 2025 may be the strongest vote for doing more to address the climate crisis recorded in Australia. The Coalition’s position – unwinding or scrappingnearly all of Labor’s climate policies, abandoning the Paris climate agreementin spirit if not name, and slowing the rollout of renewable energy while substantially boosting local fossil fuel energy for the next two decades – is basically climate denial, and not what a majority of Australians want. That’s not a new idea, but the election confirmed it.
It’s too soon to know what this means for the Coalition’s promise to build taxpayer-funded nuclear generators, or whether it will accept that the grid is on a path to running overwhelmingly on renewable energy backed by firming support, as the AustralianEnergyMarket Operator says it can.
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But it may be a moot point by the time Australians next vote in 2028. By then, at least 60% of power should be coming from renewables.
Experts differ on whether we will get to 82% renewable energy by the end of the decade. Ultimately, it is not the key point. We won’t be far away. The goal is to get there as rapidly as possible while maintaining support for the transition by managing reliability and costs – and the impact on nature. There will be few more important projects undertaken across the country over the next five years.
With so little focus on climate policy during the campaign, it is worth a brief stocktake of where we are before the new parliament forms.
The rollout of renewable energy is being underpinned by a federal underwriting program – acapacity investment scheme– to ensure a substantial amount of large-scale solar, wind and batteries are built as coal plants shut. State schemes also play a role in driving this change.
Labor, backed by the Greens and independents, legislated a vehicle efficiency standard,requiring auto companies to sell progressively cleaner new cars. They passed“future made in Australia”laws introducing tax production credits for green industries, including hydrogen, aluminium and critical minerals. They created aNet Zero Economy Authorityto help fossil fuel communities adjust to changes ahead. They overhauledthe safeguard mechanism, a Coalition-era policy applied to major industrial sites.
It will be a while before the success of some of these can be properly assessed. In the case of the safeguard mechanism, the first annual results after the revamp were mixed. Total emissions covered by the scheme were down 2% – a change in trajectory from under the Coalition – butmany emitters increased pollution. Some were rewarded with free credits after the department expected their emissions to be even higher. It suggests another overhaul, or at least some closer scrutiny, is warranted.
Most of the policies above were promised, or broadly flagged, before the 2022 election. Commitments in this campaign can be listed much more quickly. They basically start and end witha subsidy program for household battery systems.
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It means major questions about where the government heads on climate in this term remain unanswered – and major decisions lie ahead. But we have some clues.
While it doesn’t talk about them much, Labor began work before the election ondecarbonisation plans for six sectors of the economy: electricity and energy; transport; industry; agriculture and land; resources; and the built environment. It says they will be linked to an overarching net zero plan. A national climate risk assessment and adaptation plan is also in the works.
A long-promised 2035 emissions reduction target is now due by September, following advice from the Climate Change Authority and its irrepressible chair, former New South Wales state Liberal MP Matt Kean. The authority’s preliminary assessment last year was that an emissions cut of between 65% and 75% below 2005 levels “would be ambitious andcould be achievable if additional action is taken”. It tells us that new policies will be needed, and probably sooner rather than later.
Later this year we will learn whetherAustralia will secure the rights to host the Cop31 major climate summit. If it does, it willbring tens of thousands of delegates to Adelaidein November next year, and is likely to lead to increased international scrutiny on the country’s biggestcontribution to the climate crisis– its still-expanding fossil fuel export industries.
There will also likely be an early focus on the environment portfolio, where Albanese has again promised Labor will create a national environment protection agency and rewrite conservation laws afterboth were dropped last term. The prime minister has indicated he wantsthe policy work to start from scratch– possibly under a new minister if Tanya Plibersekmoves to a new portfolio.
With so much still to be decided on both the climate crisis and nature, Labor has a rare opportunity to move boldly in the name of governing from the centre. Surveys have repeatedly found that the average voter would back more ambitious action. After a landslide election win, and with a progressive buffer in both houses of parliament, there will never be a better chance to shake off old impasses and deliver it. Will it rise to the challenge?