The polls aren’t all bad news for Peter Dutton – with at least one pollster thinking he still has a narrow path to minority government thanks to voters backing smaller parties.
Scott Morrison’s former media chief turned consultant,Andrew Carswell, said a path to victory was still possible for theCoalition.
“The path is narrow, though it’s narrowing by the day, but I think the best most can do is ignore the established polls out there at the moment, because what we’ll see on Saturday will be out of step,” he told Associated Australian Press.
“While Labor is very much the short odds to be in minority government, it will be closer than people think.”
Despite Carswell saying a majority government is “awfully difficult” for the Coalition to achieve, a rise in support for rightwing minor parties could flow back to the opposition.
“The preferences that come fromOne Nation, Trumpet of Patriots and other centre-right minor parties to the Coalition is dramatically higher than in 2022,” he said.
“One Nation is a party of protest, they preference away, generally speaking, from incumbent governments, and that will bring in to play some seats that will be a surprise for people on election night.”
The latest YouGov poll showed One Nation had a 10.5% primary vote, while Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots stood at 2%.
The result forPauline Hanson’s party is more than double the result it got at the 2022 poll, when it had just under 5% of the primary vote.
In many electorates, Coalition how-to-vote cards have urged supporters to put One Nation second on their ballot.
Carswell said Victoria was still looking strong for the Coalition, particularly in outer-suburban seats where cost-of-living pressures were hitting hardest.
“The further from the CBD, the better – there is the chance of some surprises on election night in outer suburban seats,” he said.
Embattled Liberal candidateScott Yungmaintains he has done nothing wrong in terms of past questions about disclosing campaign donations or the use of social media influencers, saying he had always acted “in accordance with the law”.
The Bennelong challenger also said it was “a joke” that he had been criticised for handing out Easter eggs to children as part of his campaign.
Liberal leaderPeter Duttonvisited Bennelong, one of the most marginal Labor seats in the country, for the first time in the election campaign on Monday night. In a low-key campaign stop at a local club, Dutton addressed a small group of supporters of Yung’s campaign, shaking hands with people clad in Liberal T-shirts and backing the candidate.
As Guardian Australia and other outlets have reported, questions have swirled over Yung’s candidacy, including over disclosures made during his 2019 tilt for a state government seat, and the use of influencers to endorse his candidacy.
Yung and theLiberal partyhave maintained he had done nothing wrong, and that he had made appropriate disclosures.
On Monday, media travelling with Dutton managed to ask Yung several questions at the sports club. He said “everything’s done in accordance with the law”.
“I checked the records,” he said.
Dutton’s staff, who had remained at the event after the leader had left, attempted several times to wind up the impromptu appearance by asking reporters to return to the campaign bus.
Asked about his decision to hand out chocolate eggs outside a school during a campaign stop, Yung defended it as “in the spirit of Easter”.
“Can I just say, what a joke that I got slammed for that. I think it’s in the spirit of Easter. I asked parents if I could give an Easter egg to their children,” he said.
Asked by Guardian Australia about social media influencers, Yung said: “Let me just make this very very clear again,we have not paid any social media influencers in 2019.” Asked if he had paid influencers in 2025, Yung said “no”.
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More from Josh on that Dutton interview on Sky last night:
In recent weeks Dutton has faced vigorous questioning on his nuclear and gas policies, plans to slash the public service, and his economic credentials.Dutton has sowed confusionby declining to give details about his public service plan or mooted cuts to migration, and gave public apologies for a ditchedCoalitionpolicy to wind back working from home for public servants, as well as over incorrect comments about Russia’s interactions with Indonesia over military issues.
On Sky, Dutton also again accused Labor and Albanese of “lying”, “scare campaigns”, and “completely baseless” claims.
“I think there is a turning of the mood,” Dutton claimed of his feeling about the voting public.
“There’s a big disparity in what we’re seeing, the track polling in marginal seats ... There’s a lot of anger against the government, particularly in outer metro and regional areas, and I don’t think that’s been picked up in the national polls.”
Peter Dutton has doubled downon his criticisms of the journalists covering his election campaign, calling the media “activists” and “so biased” after numerous stumbles and slip-ups at press conferences in the last month.
In an interview on Sky News last night, Dutton claimed internal Liberal track polling was “much more positive” for his election prospects than published opinion polling, which uniformly shows Labor in an election-winning position with around a 52-48 two-party lead.
A day afterDutton referred to the ABC and Guardian Australia as “hate media”,he again criticised the journalists following his campaign. Several Liberal colleagues includingJames PatersonandJane Humeclaimed yesterday Dutton was joking or making a “tongue in cheek” comment with his criticisms of media, but on Sky, the Liberal leader did not repeat that defence himself, nor back away from his previous comments.
Referring to the “hate media” comment, Sky hostSharri Marksonasked, “Do you think that sort of media and others like them actually hate mainstream Australian values?”
Dutton said in response that some media were “so biased” and “many of them are just activists, not journalists”.
“They’re playing to a particular audience, a Green voter,” Dutton claimed.
“I think the leftwing media, by polling day, will be counter-productive in what they’re doing.”
Good morning and welcome to our live news blog. I’mMartin Farrerwith the best of the overnight stories and then it’ll beKrishani Dhanjito guide you through the day.
With the final few days of campaigning to go, ourlatest Essential pollshows Labor still holds an election-winning lead by 52-48 points over the Coalition on a two-party basis. The survey also revealsPeter Dutton’s personal approval rating has slipped for the fourth poll in a row. More details coming up, plus what the latest Roy Morgan poll shows, and one pollster – a former adviser toScott Morrison– who sees hope for Dutton. We’ll be on their trail again, withAnthony Albanesecampaigning in Brisbane today, while Dutton will be starting the day in Sydney.
But the opposition leader remains defiant. In a Sky News interview last night, Dutton renewed his criticisms of the journalists covering his election campaign, describing reporters as “activists” and “so biased” in coverage of his numerous stumbles and slip-ups at press conferences in the last month. We have more details, including theCoalitionleader reiterating one of his favourite talking points: that those polls showing him trailing Albanese are wrong.
Plus: Liberal candidate for Bennelong,Scott Yung,insisted last night he has done nothing wrong in terms of past questions about disclosing campaign donations or the use of social media influencers, saying he had always acted “in accordance with the law”. More coming up.