Aseason reduced to a single moment – in Aston Villa’s case, perhaps even more than a season. The Manchester United goalkeeper Altay Bayindir slid out to gather the ball. He fumbled, slightly, allowing Morgan Rogers to poke the ball away from him. The referee Thomas Bramall thought Bayindir had had the ball under control and blew for a free-kick just before Rogers knocked the ball into the empty net. Replays showed decisively that Bayindir never had the ball under control. But because Bramall had stopped the game before Rogers put the ball over the line, the goal could not be given by the video assistant referee.
Three minutes later, Amad Diallo put United ahead, his team went on to win, and Villa finished sixth in the Premier League, meaning theyare out of next season’s Champions League. Given how close Villa have pushed the line on Profit & Sustainability Rules (PSR), that could have significant ramifications.
“The key moment,” said Unai Emery, “was the goal of Morgan Rogers and how the referee in this moment decided this action”. On Sunday evening, Aston Villasent a letter to the PGMOL, the body that oversees refereeing in the Premier League, protesting that “a more experienced referee” had not been appointed and stating that “a decision to whistle early is clearly inconsistent with current refereeing guidelines”. Which, frankly, from a club that has done so much right in recent seasons, is all a bit embarrassing.
Was Bramall’s decision wrong? Yes. Was it an understandable error? Also yes: from Bramall’s (entirely correct) position, 20 yards away, it’s entirely reasonable that he didn’t realise Bayindir hadn’t claimed a simple ball easily, couldn’t see that there was a half inch gap between the ball and the goalkeeper’s glove. There are 17 minutes remaining, the game is becoming increasingly edgy, tempers fraying: he thinks he sees a forward going in slightly late on a goalkeeper and kicking the ball out of his hands, so he blows the whistle. Be decisive, control the moment, try to prevent any flare up before it has begun. Much of that sounds like good refereeing – it’s just that Bayindir had made an inexplicable mistake.
And this is where we run into VAR and the contortions into which it has forced the game. Somehow referees are now being asked not merely to decide whether something is a foul, but to assess in the moment how certain they are it is a foul; and, on that assessment, decide whether to blow the whistle immediately or whether to wait so that there is an opportunity to correct a potential mistake. Do we really want more ghost football, football that might be real but everybody suspects isn’t? Taiwo Awoniyi’s horror injuryshould be warning enoughof the danger that presents.
This was a classic case of a club blaming a referee for their own shortcomings. Was that really the “key moment” in the game? Or was the key moment the moment just before half-time when Matty Cash underhit a backpass, presenting the ball to Rasmus Højlund, who was then bodychecked by Emi Martínez, earning the goalkeeper an entirely merited red card? And this was Manchester United, a team who have been dreadful all year: maybe if you want to be in the Champions League, just beat them.
Villa, of all clubs, should know how refereeing errors can have a major impact, for good or for ill. In 2020, Sheffield United were not awarded a goal against Villa that had clearly crossed the line because bodies in the way meant goalline technology could not function. Without the point that brought Villa, they would have finished below Bournemouth on goal difference and been relegated. Mistakes happen; the key is to put yourself in a position that if they go against you, they don’t matter.The consequences of missing out on the top five could be profound.According to the Swiss Ramble Substack, in the last three-year window, Villa complied with PSR by only £12m – and that only after extending their accounting period by a month to take in the sales of Douglas Luiz, Ian Maatsen and Omari Kellyman. Although this season’s Champions League revenue and the £60m sale of Jhon Durán in January will help, the £100m sale of Jack Grealish to Manchester City will no longer count towards the next calculations, while there was a significant investment, at least in terms of wages, in Marcus Rashford and Marco Asensio, in January.
Martínez has already been strongly linked with a move to Saudi Arabia, but he may not be the only significant departure this summer as Villa battle to comply with PSR. Swiss Ramble suggests they have probably already breached Uefa’s squad cost control limits, although the sanctions for that are less severe.
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Villa will be among the favourites for next season’s Europa League, a competition Emery has already won three times, but there will have to be retrenchment. The rise of a club cruelly checked by a refereeing mistake? That’s how it will be portrayed, but if you sail that close to the wind, and leave the achievement of your objectives to the final 15 minutes of the season, there will always be the danger of events intervening.
This is an extract from Soccer with Jonathan Wilson, a weekly look from the Guardian US at the game in Europe and beyond.Subscribe for free here.Have a question for Jonathan? Emailsoccerwithjw@theguardian.com, and he’ll answer the best in a future edition.