Australian officials are gearing up for next week’s mid-yearclimate talksin Bonn where they’ll be going full tilt lobbying other governments to support the bid to host next year’s COP31 negotiations. But can the government claim enough climate leadership?
Our latestClimate Action Trackershows the government’s efforts to cut emissions are still rated “insufficient”. Australia is not on track to meet its renewable energy target, its flagship industrial emissions policy is deficient, and its support for the fossil fuel industry – especially exports – remains unwavering.
The climate change and energy minister, Chris Bowen, has said getting the COP31 host honour wouldrestore Australia’s leadership on climate– after what have been many years of denial and delay – but it could equally serve to show the world how inadequate his policies are.
While the Albanese government has made some progress on climate policy since it came to power in 2022, restoring leadership won’t come from hosting climate talks; it means turning words into action on both domestic and international fronts.
The latest emissions inventory shows only a 1.5% reduction over the last two financial years, throwing this challenge into sharp relief – this rate needs to nearly double to 3% every year to reach the government target.
We have based our update for Australia on government projections from 2024. The federal government hasreleased emission figures for 2024, which were broadly similar.
The Albanese governmentclaims it is on trackfor emission reduction of 42.6% by 2030 from 2005 levels – close to the national 43% target. While this is partly the result of the renewables rollout, it’s mostly due to the increase in the projected carbon stored in the land by 2030, such as in soils and vegetation. Without the increase in projected 2030 land sequestration in the past three years, Australia would only record a 34.9% emission reduction.
Excluding the land and electricity sectors, emissions from all other economic sectors are projected to be 4.5% above 2005 levels in 2030.
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Australia’s 43% target is not aligned with the Paris agreement, which aims to keep global warming to no more than 1.5C. It should be at least 59%. The government also has yet to announce its 2035 emissions reduction target, well behind the February deadline. This needs to be at least 72% below 2005 levels.
The government’s 82% renewable energy target for the power sector by 2030 doesn’t cover off-grid generation, which mostly occurs in mining regions of Western Australia where connecting to the main grid is not feasible.These account for about 10%of Australia’s electricity generation. So the government’s target translates to only a 77% renewable power grid nationwide by 2030. And that’s assuming the target is met; the Climate Change Authorityhas warned that the renewables rollout must be acceleratedto make that happen.
Barriers to renewable energy development includeslow planning and environmental approval processes, grid bottlenecks, tighter markets for equipment and labour, a lack of community acceptance and state rollbacks of renewable energy targets or projects. Overcoming these problems is crucial and provide a strong case for the federal government legislating Australia’s renewable energy targets for 2030 and beyond. This would ensure it becomes a national standard and provides certainty for investors.
But the 2030 target is just one milestone on the way to 100% renewable electricity system by the late 2030s, andthis will requirenational coordination.
Labor has tightened its flagship policy to curb emissions from industry’s biggest polluters: the safeguard mechanism. Emissions from companies captured by the policyaccount for about 31%of Australia’s total emissions
The policy sets declining limits for how much facilities can emit with “net” emissions to decline to 100 MtCO2e by 2030, or 28.1% below 2023 levels, allowing companies to buy carbon offsets rather than make real emission reductions.
Offsets arenot equivalentto fossil fuel CO2 reductions and often do not represent real and permanent emissions reduction, asEnergy Australiawas forced to admit.
Allowing a company to buy carbon offsets means it does not change its on-site operations to be less polluting, delaying the structural change needed across high-emitting sectors to decarbonisewhich is criticalif climate goals are to be met.
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Our new analysis shows that, due to the use of carbon offsets, the companies could collectively reduce their actual emissions by only 2% by the end of this decade, from 2023 levels.
Fossil fuel projects in the approval and development pipeline threaten to swamp emissions reductions projected by the government out to 2030. This includes Woodside’s North West Shelf gas extension, which Labor has approved to operate until 2070 – decades beyond the point when Australia is meant to have reached net zero emissions.
Australia’s transport sector is set to become the country’s greatest source of emissions by 2030.
The national fuel efficiency standard introduced by Labor last term applies to new light vehicles. The standard should be extended to heavy vehicles to encourage a transition to electrification. Heavy vehicles accounted for 22% of Australia’s transport emissions last year and are expected to increase.
Australia’s electric vehicle uptake remains slow compared with other countries. The growth of Australia’s fast-charging network is not keeping pace with electric vehicle sales, which could limit uptake further.
It’s clear Australia must lift its domestic game to align with anything close to the Paris agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5C.
That would still leave the problem of emissions flowing from our fossil fuel exports, which, together with our domestic emissions, are responsible for about 4.5% of the global total.
After the first assessment of global action, governments agreed at COP28 in Dubai that the world needs to “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems to achieve net zero”, a callstrongly supported by Bowen. But our analysis shows Australia’s fossil fuel exports are projected to remain close to recent levels through the next decade in official projections.
In the lead-up to the decision on hosting rights for the COP31 talks, Australia has much work to do to lift its climate game and ensure its policies withstand global scrutiny.
Bill Hare, a physicist and climate scientist, is the chief executive of Climate Analytics