Last year was the deadliest for Russian forces since the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine: at least 45,287 people were killed. This is almost three times more than in the first year of the invasion and significantly exceeds the losses of 2023, when the longest and deadliest battle of the war was taking place in Bakhmut. At the start of the war, losses happened in waves during battles for key locations, but 2024 saw a month-on-month increase in the death toll as the front line slowly edged forward, enabling us to establish that Russia lost at least 27 lives for every kilometre of Ukrainian territory captured. The BBC Russian Service, in collaboration with independent media outlet Mediazona and a team of volunteers, has processed open source data from Russian cemeteries, military memorials and obituaries. So far, we have identified the names of 106,745 Russian soldiers killed during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The true number is clearly much higher. Military experts estimate our number may cover between 45% and 65% of deaths, which would mean 164,223 to 237,211 people. 20 February 2024 was the deadliest day for Russian forces in 2024. Among the casualties were Aldar Bairov, Igor Babych and Okhunjon Rustamov, who were with the 36th Motorised Rifle Brigade when four Ukrainian long-range HIMARS missiles hit a training ground near the city of Volnovakha in occupied Donetsk. They had been ordered to line up for a medal ceremony. Sixty-five servicemen were killed, including their commander Col Musaev. Dozens more were wounded. Bairov, 22 and from Buryatia in eastern Siberia, had studied to be a food sanitation specialist but was drafted for mandatory military service and then signed a contract to become a professional soldier. In February 2022 he went to fight in Ukraine and was part of the battle for Borodyanka during his brigade's advance towards Kyiv in March 2022. The town was almost completely destroyed. Ukrainian sources say Russian soldiers were involved in the execution of civilians. Okhunjon Rustamov, 31 and from Chita in Siberia, had worked as a welder after serving a mandatory term in special forces. He was mobilised during a partial draft in October 2022. Unlike Rustamov, Igor Babych, 32, had volunteered to go to war. He had worked with adults and children diagnosed with cerebral palsy, helping them with physical therapy until April 2023. In total 201 Russian soldiers died on that day, according to our data. A few hours after the strike on the training ground, then-Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu met Vladimir Putin to bring him news of military success from the front line. There was no mention of the training ground attack, nor was there any word from the Ministry of Defence in its daily reports. A relative of Okhunjon Rustamov said she had already buried three close family members over the course of the war. "In December 2022, my husband died. On 10 February 2024, my godfather. And on 20 February my half-brother. From one funeral to the next." In our analysis, we prioritised exact dates of death for soldiers. If that wasn't available, we used the date of the funeral or the date the death was reported. In the first two years of the war, 2022 and 2023, Russian losses followed a wave-like pattern: heavy fighting with high casualties alternated with periods of relative calm. In 2023, for example, most casualties occurred between January and March, when Russian forces attempted to capture the cities of Vuhledar and Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast. In the first year of the full-scale invasion, according to our calculations, Russia lost at least 17,890 soldiers. This number does not include losses from Russia's two proxy forces in occupied eastern Ukraine. In2023, the number rose to 37,633. In2024, there was no period showing a significant fall in casualties. Bloody battles for Avdiivka and Robotyne were followed by intensified assaults towards Pokrovsk and Toretsk. In August 2024, Russian conscripts were killed when Ukrainian forces stormed over the border into the Kursk region. From August 6 to 13 alone, an estimated 1,226 Russian soldiers died. However, the heaviest overall losses occurred during a slow Russian advance in the east between September and November 2024, according to leading US military analyst Michael Kofman. "Tactics emphasised repeated attacks with dispersed assault groups, using small infantry fire teams, which increased overall casualties relative to terrain gained," he explained. After almost two years of intense fighting, Russian forces seized the logistical hub of Vuhledar in Donetsk on 1 October 2024. According to estimates by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), from September to November 2024, Russian forces captured 2,356 square kilometres of Ukraine. Even then, Ukrainian forces at the front did not collapse. The cost of this advance was at least 11,678 Russian military deaths. Actual losses figures are likely higher. We have only accounted for soldiers and officers whose names appeared in publicly available obituaries and whose dates of death or funeral fell within this period. Overall in 2024, according to ISW, Russia captured 4,168 square kilometres of land. This means that for each square kilometre captured, 27 Russian soldiers were killed, and this does not include the wounded. Russia has found ways of replenishing its depleted forces. "Russian recruitment also increased in the second half of 2024 and exceeded Russian casualties, allowing Moscow to generate additional formations," says Michael Kofman. One-time payments to soldiers signing new contracts were increased in three Russian regions. Combat salaries for volunteer soldiers are five to seven times higher than the average wage in most regions. We also class as volunteers those who signed up to avoid criminal prosecution, which was allowed by law in 2024. Volunteers have become the fastest-growing category of casualties in our calculations, making up a quarter of those we have identified. In 2023-2024, thousands of volunteers who signed contracts with the Ministry of Defence were sent to the front lines only 10–14 days later. Such minimal training will have dramatically reduced their chances of survival, experts say. One Russian republic, Bashkortostan, has seen the highest numbers of casualties, with 4,836 confirmed deaths. Most were from rural areas and 38% had gone to fight with no military experience. The one-time payment for signing a Russian army contract in Ufa is 34 times the region's average salary of 67,575 rubles (£600). Calculating deaths from open source data will always be incomplete. This is because the bodies of a significant number of soldiers killed in the past months may still be on the battlefield and retrieving them presents a risk to serving soldiers. The true death toll for Russian forces increases significantly, if you include those who fought against Ukraine as part of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics. An assessment of obituaries and reports of searches for fighters who have lost contact suggests between 21,000 and 23,500 people may have been killed by September 2024. That would bring the total number of fatalities to 185,000 to 260,700 military personnel.
27 lives per kilometre: How Russia took record losses in Ukraine in 2024
TruthLens AI Suggested Headline:
"Russian Military Casualties in Ukraine Reach Record Highs in 2024"
Bbc News
7.0
TruthLens AI Summary
The year 2024 has been noted as the deadliest year for Russian forces since the onset of the full-scale conflict in Ukraine, with at least 45,287 soldiers killed. This figure represents a dramatic increase in casualties compared to previous years, almost tripling the losses experienced during the first year of the invasion and surpassing those of 2023, which was marked by intense fighting in Bakhmut. The losses have been particularly staggering, as Russian forces reportedly lost an average of 27 lives for every kilometer of Ukrainian territory they captured. This analysis is based on data compiled by the BBC Russian Service in collaboration with Mediazona and volunteers, who have processed open-source information from various sources, including cemeteries and military memorials. It is estimated that the actual number of Russian military fatalities could be much higher, potentially ranging between 164,223 and 237,211, as current records may only account for 45% to 65% of the total losses.
Among the significant events of 2024 was the deadliest day for Russian troops on February 20, when a Ukrainian missile strike on a training ground killed 65 servicemen, including their commander. The casualties included soldiers like Aldar Bairov, Igor Babych, and Okhunjon Rustamov, whose backgrounds highlight the diverse experiences of those serving in the conflict. The pattern of Russian military losses has shifted in 2024, with consistent high casualties occurring without significant breaks in fighting. Major battles have continued to claim lives, particularly during assaults on key locations like Avdiivka and Robotyne. Despite the heavy toll, Russian forces have managed to replenish their ranks through increased recruitment efforts, with many soldiers signing contracts under dire circumstances. The data suggests that the real death toll is likely much larger than reported, especially when considering the soldiers fighting alongside the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics. This ongoing conflict raises serious questions about the human cost of the war and the sustainability of military strategies employed by Russia as it continues to pursue territorial gains in Ukraine.
TruthLens AI Analysis
The report presents a stark overview of the casualties suffered by Russian forces in Ukraine during 2024, highlighting the significant increase in fatalities compared to previous years. The detailed account of losses aims to shed light on the ongoing conflict and its human cost, especially for Russian military personnel. This analysis will explore the underlying implications of the report, the perceptions it may create in society, and the potential effects on various spheres.
Purpose of the Report
The report seems designed to inform the public about the staggering losses incurred by Russian troops, which could serve to foster a sense of accountability and reflection on the war's human toll. By providing specific figures and personal stories, it aims to humanize the conflict and evoke empathy, potentially leading to increased scrutiny of military decisions and policies.
Societal Perception
This article could shape public perception by emphasizing the high cost of military engagement. It might lead to a growing anti-war sentiment or increased public discourse regarding the effectiveness of the military strategies employed. The detailed narratives of individual soldiers, such as Bairov's, serve to personalize the statistics, making it more relatable for readers and possibly inciting emotional responses.
Information Omission
While the article presents a significant amount of data regarding Russian losses, it may underreport or overlook the casualties on the Ukrainian side. By focusing predominantly on Russian fatalities, there is a risk of creating a narrative that could divert attention from the broader context of the conflict, including the impact on Ukrainian civilians and forces.
Manipulative Elements
The report exhibits a degree of manipulativeness through its choice of language and emphasis on emotional storytelling. By highlighting individual stories and the gruesome details of military losses, it aligns readers' sympathies with the soldiers rather than the political ramifications of the war. This could be interpreted as an attempt to sway public opinion against continued military engagement.
Credibility Assessment
The data presented about casualties appears credible, as it is based on open-source investigations and corroborated by multiple independent bodies. However, the acknowledgment that the true numbers could be higher suggests a cautious approach to interpreting the data. The estimates provided by military experts lend further weight to the analysis, underscoring the complexity of accurately gauging losses in conflict situations.
Comparative Analysis
When compared to other reports on the Ukraine conflict, this article's focus on the human cost of Russian military operations aligns with a growing trend of emphasizing personal narratives in conflict reporting. Such narratives may resonate more with audiences and help in understanding the war's impact on individuals rather than abstract military strategies.
Impact on Society and Politics
The publication of this report could lead to increased public pressure on the Russian government regarding its military strategies and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. It may contribute to a more informed citizenry that demands accountability and transparency from political leaders, potentially influencing future policy decisions.
Support Base
The article may resonate more with communities that advocate for peace and humanitarian perspectives, as it highlights the personal losses suffered by soldiers. It is likely to appeal to those who question the validity of continued military operations in Ukraine, fostering a broader dialogue about the human implications of war.
Economic and Market Influence
This report could have indirect implications for global markets, particularly in sectors related to defense and military contracting. Investors might reassess their positions based on perceived military effectiveness and the potential for prolonged conflict. Stocks in defense companies could see volatility as public sentiment shifts in response to reports like this.
Global Power Dynamics
From a geopolitical standpoint, the report underscores the significant losses faced by Russian forces and may influence international perspectives on the conflict. It could prompt allies and adversaries alike to reconsider their positions regarding support for either side, potentially reshaping alliances and strategies moving forward.
Artificial Intelligence Involvement
While it is unclear whether artificial intelligence played a role in the report's composition, it is possible that data analysis tools were utilized to process the open-source information and compile casualty statistics. Such tools could enhance the accuracy and efficiency of data collection, but the narrative style indicates a human touch in the storytelling aspect.
In summary, the report appears to be a thoughtful analysis of the human cost of the ongoing conflict, aiming to evoke a deeper understanding and conversation around military engagement in Ukraine. The credibility of the reported figures adds weight to its claims, while the emotional appeal may manipulate perceptions toward a more anti-war sentiment.